Assessment of risk due to the use of carbon fiber composites in commercial and general aviation

The development of a national risk profile for the total annual aircraft losses due to carbon fiber composite (CFC) usage through 1993 is discussed. The profile was developed using separate simulation methods for commercial and general aviation aircraft. A Monte Carlo method which was used to assess the risk in commercial aircraft is described. The method projects the potential usage of CFC through 1993, investigates the incidence of commercial aircraft fires, models the potential release and dispersion of carbon fibers from a fire, and estimates potential economic losses due to CFC damaging electronic equipment. The simulation model for the general aviation aircraft is described. The model emphasizes variations in facility locations and release conditions, estimates distribution of CFC released in general aviation aircraft accidents, and tabulates the failure probabilities and aggregate economic losses in the accidents

A Fourier approach to cloud motion estimation

A Fourier technique is described for estimating cloud motion from pairs of pictures using the phase of the cross spectral density. The method allows motion estimates to be made for individual spatial frequencies, which are related to cloud pattern dimensions. Results obtained are presented and compared with the results of a Fourier domain cross correlation scheme. Using both artificial and real cloud data show that the technique is relatively sensitive to the presence of mixtures of motions, changes in cloud shape, and edge effects

Potential impact of subsonic and supersonic aircraft exhaust on water vapor in the lower stratosphere assessed via a trajectory model

We employ a trajectory model to assess the impact on the stratosphere of water vapor present in the exhaust of subsonic and a proposed fleet of supersonic aircraft. Air parcels into which water vapor from aircraft exhaust has been injected are run through a 6-year simulation in the trajectory model using meteorological data from the UKMO analyses with emissions dictated by the standard 2015 emissions scenario. For the subsonic aircraft, our results suggest maximum enhancements of ~150 ppbv just above the Northern Hemisphere tropopause and of much less than 50 ppbv in most other regions. Inserting the perturbed water vapor profiles into a radiative transfer model, but not considering the impact of additional cirrus formation resulting from emissions by subsonic aircraft, we find that the impact of subsonic water vapor emissions on the radiative balance is negligible. For the supersonic case, our results show maximum enhancements of ~1.5 ppmv in the tropical stratosphere near 20 km. Much of the remaining stratosphere between 12 and 25 km sees enhancements of greater than 0.1 ppmv, although enhancements above 35 km are generally less than 50 ppbv, in contrast to previous 2-D and 3-D model studies. Radiative calculations based upon these projected water vapor perturbations indicate they may cause a nonnegligible impact on tropical temperature profiles. Since our trajectory model includes no chemistry and our radiative calculations use the most extreme water vapor perturbations, our results should be viewed as upper limits on the potential impacts

Progress in oyster mortality studies

Engle, J.B.; Rosenfield, A

Attention bias dynamics and symptom severity during and following CBT for social anxiety disorder

Objective: Threat-related attention bias figures prominently in contemporary accounts of the maintenance of anxiety disorders, yet longitudinal intervention research relating attention bias to anxiety symptom severity is limited. Capitalizing on recent advances in the conceptualization and measurement of attention bias, we aimed to examine the relation between attention bias, indexed using trial-level bias scores (TLBSs) to quantify temporal dynamics reflecting dysregulation of attentional processing of threat (as opposed to aggregated mean bias scores) and social anxiety symptom severity over the course of cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) and 1-month follow-up. Method: Adults with social anxiety disorder (N = 39) assigned to either yohimbine-or placebo-augmented CBT completed measures of attention bias and social anxiety symptom severity weekly throughout CBT (5 sessions) and at 1-week and 1-month posttreatment. Results: TLBSs of attention bias temporal dynamics showed stronger psychometric properties than mean aggregated scores and were highly interrelated, in line with within-subject temporal variability fluctuating in time between attentional overengagement and strategic avoidance from threat. Attention bias toward threat and temporal variability in attention bias (i.e., attentional dysregulation), but not attention bias away from threat, significantly reduced over the course of CBT. Cross-lag analyses revealed no evidence of a causal relation between reductions in attentional dysregulation leading to symptom severity reduction, or vice versa. Observed relations did not vary as a function of time. Conclusions: We found no evidence for attentional dysregulation as a causal mechanism for symptom reduction in CBT for social anxiety disorders. Implications for future research are discussed

An assessment of the risk arising from electrical effects associated with carbon fibers released from commercial aircraft fires

The risks associated with electrical effects arising from carbon fibers released from commercial aviation aircraft fires were estimated for 1993. The expected annual losses were estimated to be about $470 (1977 dollars) in 1993. The chances of total losses from electrical effects exceeding$100,000 (1977 dollars) in 1993 were established to be about one in ten thousand

Theoretical modelling and meteorological analysis for the AASE mission

Providing real time constituent data analysis and potential vorticity computations in support of the Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Experiment (AASE) is discussed. National Meteorological Center (NMC) meteorological data and potential vorticity computations derived from NMC data are projected onto aircraft coordinates and provided to the investigators in real time. Balloon and satellite constituent data are composited into modified Lagrangian mean coordinates. Various measurements are intercompared, trends deduced and reconstructions of constituent fields performed

Residual circulations calculated from satellite data: Their relations to observed temperature and ozone distributions

Monthly mean residual circulations were calculated from eight years of satellite data. The diabatic circulation is usually found to give a good approximation to the residual circulation, but this is not always the case. In particular, an example is shown at 60 deg S and 30 mbar where the diabatic and residual circulations show very different annual variations. Correlations between the vertical component of the residual circulation and temperature and ozone were computed. The computations indicate that yearly variations of temperatures in the tropics are under radiative control, except during stratospheric warmings. Interannual variations in seasonal mean temperatures are shown to be under dynamical control everywhere. Correlations between seasonal means of the vertical component of the residual circulation and ozone mixing ratios are consistent with what would be expected from the ozone variations being due to differences in the ozone transport, although transport effects cannot easily be distinguished from photochemical effects above the altitude of the ozone mixing ratio peak. Finally, variations in total ozone are examined in comparison with residual circulation variations. A one to two month phase lag is seen in the annual variation in the total ozone at 60 deg N with respect to the maximum downward residual motions. This phase lag is greater at 60 deg N than at 60 deg S. There is evidence at 60 deg S of a greater downward trend in the mean zonal ozone maxima than there is in the minima. A decreasing trend in the maximum descending motion is seen to accompany the ozone trend at 60 deg S

Investigation of instability, dynamic forces, and effect of dynamic loading on strength of cages for the bearings in the high pressure oxygen turbopumps for the space shuttle main engine

Experiments were performed to determine the effect of cyclic loading on bearing cage strength. A long term working tensile load of approximately 1300 N (300 lbs) was found to be the likely maximum. Higher loads caused a decrease in cage tensile strength after the 125,000 cycle testing period. Poisson's ratio in compression was found to be highly dependent upon the direction of the fiberglass plies. At room temperature the value was 0.15 with the plies and 0.68 across the plies. At -196 C (-321 F), the value with the plies was 0.20. The results of the analyses conducted have again demonstrated the critical need for improved lubrication in the high pressure oxygen turbopump bearings. Lubricant films with low shear strength and low friction coefficients promote cage stability and decrease ball/cage forces during marginal operating conditions. The analysis of the effect of combined bearing loads on ball/cage loads has identified a radial load of 3600 N (800 lbs) as the maximum for the current clearance of the balls and cage pockets. Liquid oxygen impinging on the cage in the direction of rotation was found to enhance cage stability